LME tin closed 2024 with a 13.87% increase, reaching an intraday high of $36,050/mt and a low of $24,115/mt during the year. As time moves into 2025, as of 15:52 on January 8, 2025, LME tin rose by 0.34% to $30,045/mt, with its year-to-date increase for 2025 temporarily at 3.31%. SHFE tin ended its 2024 journey with an annual increase of 15.5%, hitting an intraday high of 290,520 yuan/mt and a low of 203,190 yuan/mt during the year. As of 16:02 on January 8, 2025, SHFE tin rose by 1.44% to 251,600 yuan/mt, with its year-to-date increase for 2025 temporarily at 2.29%.
LME tin closed 2024 with a 13.87% increase, reaching an intraday high of $36,050/mt and a low of $24,115/mt during the year. Moving into 2025, as of 15:52 on January 8, 2025, LME tin rose by 0.34% to $30,045/mt, with a year-to-date increase of 3.31%. SHFE tin ended its 2024 journey with a 15.5% annual increase, hitting an intraday high of 290,520 yuan/mt and a low of 203,190 yuan/mt during the year. As of 16:02 on January 8, 2025, SHFE tin rose by 1.44% to 251,600 yuan/mt, with a year-to-date increase of 2.29%. 》Click to View Metal Futures Trends Spot 》View SMM Tin Products Spot Prices 》Subscribe to View SMM Historical Metal Spot Price Trends Spot side: Reviewing the historical price trends of SMM 1# tin average spot price, it can be observed that domestic macroeconomic tailwinds, disruptions in supply caused by the Wa State's mining ban, and a recovery in end-use demand such as consumer electronics contributed to an upward shift in the price center compared to 2023. Among these, the SMM 1# tin average spot price reached a new annual high of 281,750 yuan/mt on July 11, 2024, while the annual low was 205,000 yuan/mt on January 9 and January 10, 2024. On December 31, 2024, the average spot price was 246,000 yuan/mt, up by 35,250 yuan/mt or 16.73% compared to 210,750 yuan/mt on December 29, 2023. Fundamentals Supply side: Production side, driven by the upward shift in tin price center, producers of refined tin showed high enthusiasm, leading to an increase in China's refined tin production in 2024 compared to 2023. The cumulative refined tin production in China from January to December 2024 was 183,884 mt, an increase of 14,946 mt or 8.85% YoY compared to 168,938 mt in 2023. Although China's tin production increased in 2024 compared to 2023, the production data for the last month of 2024 showed a MoM decline. According to SMM's market-based processing data, China's refined tin production in December 2024 decreased by 4.41% MoM but showed a significant cumulative YoY increase of 8.91%. Due to the tightening supply of tin ore and scrap, the overall output of tin ingots declined during the month. In Yunnan, the volume of tin ore imported from Myanmar remained low, putting significant pressure on local raw material supply. Most smelters chose to maintain current production levels or slightly reduce their scale. If Myanmar's tin mining ban policy remains unchanged, SMM expects Yunnan's smelter production to continue declining. Additionally, the continuous decline in tin concentrate TC, which has fallen below the cost line for some smelters, has led some enterprises to plan production halts before the year-end. Meanwhile, in Jiangxi, despite seasonal impacts on scrap supply in November, raw material supply was relatively sufficient, resulting in a slight increase in smelter production. However, this growth trend is unlikely to sustain, and in December, most smelters in Jiangxi also experienced a decline in production. In Inner Mongolia and Guangxi, smelting activities remained relatively stable. However, in Anhui and other regions, increasing difficulties in raw material procurement have impacted smelter production, posing challenges for maintaining future production levels. Considering the above factors, SMM predicts that China's tin ingot production may continue to decline in January 2025. With significant uncertainties surrounding the import situation of Wa State tin ore from Myanmar and increasing raw material supply issues for smelters, market participants need to remain highly vigilant and closely monitor the latest developments in the raw material market to respond promptly to potential market fluctuations. Imports: According to customs data, China's tin ore imports in November were 12,000 mt (equivalent to approximately 5,021 mt metal content), down 19.18% MoM and 56.46% YoY. The cumulative imports from January to November were 150,000 mt, down 29.68% YoY. In November, China's tin ingot imports were 3,519 mt, up 15.34% MoM but down 34.18% YoY. The cumulative imports from January to November were 18,813 mt, down 38.01% YoY. In November, China's tin ore imports showed a slight pullback, mainly due to declines in imports from Myanmar and Bolivia, while imports from other countries remained basically stable. Although Wa State authorities in Myanmar have expressed intentions to resume production, no clear timeline has been provided. Based on current market analysis and forecasts, Myanmar's tin ore imports are expected to continue declining by year-end. Meanwhile, tin ore imports from the Democratic Republic of Congo increased to some extent, while Bolivia's tin ore imports declined compared to the previous month. Imports from other countries remained basically flat compared to previous periods, and are expected to maintain current levels in the future. On the other hand, with the intermittent opening of the tin ingot import profit window, domestic tin ingot imports initially showed a rebound. According to the latest data, tin ingot imports in November increased to 3,519 mt. Imports in December are expected to remain at current levels or increase slightly. However, given the limited and unstable opening of the import profit window, tin ingot imports are unlikely to recover to the levels of the same period last year. Demand side: In 2024, the recovery in end-use demand, such as consumer electronics, became one of the key factors supporting the upward shift in tin price center. According to data released by the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), global semiconductor sales in Q3 2024 reached $166 billion, up 23.2% YoY and 10.7% QoQ. SIA President and CEO John Neuffer stated, "In Q3 2024, the global semiconductor market continued to grow, with quarterly sales achieving the largest increase since 2016. Driven by a 46.3% YoY increase in the Americas, September sales reached the highest single-month total in market history." After nearly two years of sluggish performance, the semiconductor industry finally showed signs of recovery this year. At CES 2025, NVIDIA founder and CEO Jensen Huang announced the launch of a new personal computing product, Project DIGITS. According to the introduction, Project DIGITS is equipped with NVIDIA's GB10 super chip, offering AI computing performance in the petaflop range, supporting AI model prototyping, fine-tuning, and operation. This also provides room for imagination regarding future demand growth for tin. Inventory: 》Click to View SMM Tin Industry Chain Database After reaching an annual high of 19,411 mt in late May 2024, China's regional tin ingot total social inventory showed an overall destocking trend. By the end of 2024, the total inventory of SMM's three-region tin ingot social inventory and SHFE inventory remained near the lowest levels of the past year. As of January 3, the total inventory of SMM's three-region tin ingot social inventory was 7,112 mt, down 431 mt WoW. Last week, the price trend of SHFE tin's most-traded contract experienced an upward movement at the beginning of the week, a slight pullback mid-week, and a rebound after hitting bottom by the weekend. Overall, market prices fluctuated significantly but gradually showed an upward trend over time. Looking ahead, SHFE tin prices will continue to be influenced by multiple key factors, including domestic and international economic conditions, policy adjustments, and supply-demand dynamics in the tin industry. Therefore, continuous attention to market dynamics and in-depth analysis of industry trends are crucial. SMM Outlook Looking ahead to 2025, SMM expects the upward path of tin prices to face multiple challenges. Macro side, 2025 marks the final year of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the planning year for the "15th Five-Year Plan." Domestic macroeconomic policies are expected to introduce more favorable measures, bringing macroeconomic tailwinds to the tin market. However, overseas, the market is observing the enforcement of tariff and economic policies following Trump's inauguration. After Trump's election victory, the "Trump trade" repeatedly disrupted tin price trends, and the impact of the "Trump trade" on tin prices should remain a concern in 2025. The US Fed lowered policy rates by 100 basis points in 2024, and its latest December forecast suggests a more cautious pace of interest rate cuts in 2025, with most policymakers expressing concerns about potential inflation resurgence. The changes in the US Fed's interest rate path in 2025 also warrant attention. Fundamentals side, with few new tin mines, and considering tin's non-renewable nature, tin ore supply is expected to remain tight in the future, supporting tin prices. However, caution is needed regarding the potential bearish impact of Wa State's production resumption on tin supply, which could weigh on tin prices. On the demand side, downstream consumer electronics show signs of recovery. With the domestic expansion of the "program of large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins," demand for tin in end-use applications such as mobile phones and home appliances is expected to grow, further supporting tin prices. In summary, domestic macroeconomic tailwinds, tight supply, and demand growth expectations will support tin prices. However, overseas macroeconomic and fundamental factors pose potential disruptions, requiring vigilance against their impact on tin prices.
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Jan 9, 2025 09:15
